🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Panetolikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.33 xG and Panathinaikos 1.46 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Panathinaikos attack 1.07 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 34% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 40%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 26%, Panathinaikos 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.34 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights