Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.98 xG and Panathinaikos 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Panathinaikos attack 0.83 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 37% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 30%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 48%, Panathinaikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights