🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 6 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Panetolikos's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Panetolikou this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 0.60 PPG clear of Panetolikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 7 meetings, Olympiakos Piraeus have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Panetolikos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 45% | Olympiakos Piraeus 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.89 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.866 / defence 0.933 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.077 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Panetolikos games / 42 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Panetolikos 28% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights