Panetolikos 0-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 41%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panetolikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Panetolikos welcome OFI to Panetolikos Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panetolikos Stadium, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panetolikos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OFI in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Panetolikos, 4 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 45% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 48% | OFI 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.58 xG and OFI 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.870 / defence 1.137 | OFI attack 1.108 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.084. Data: 34 Panetolikos games / 34 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 60% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Panetolikos 1.58 / OFI 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.870 / def 1.137 | OFI attack 1.108 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.36
OFI xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs OFI kick off?
Panetolikos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 OFI.
Where is Panetolikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs OFI part of?
Panetolikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 41% chance of winning, OFI a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Panetolikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): Panetolikos 4W | Draws 1 | OFI 4W.
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.87x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.55
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.94
1.36
OFI xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.36 for OFI, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 8D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.30 PPG from 40 outings (16W 4D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.02 PPG, OFI on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 6W 3D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.40 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while OFI have gone 16W 4D 20L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or OFI away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.05 PPG; OFI away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: OFI have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, OFI have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 55%, OFI 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Panetolikos and 75% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Panetolikos's games and 60% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Panetolikos's matches and 75% of OFI's.
Do Panetolikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.58 xG and OFI 1.36 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against OFI attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 48%, OFI 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.02 PPG, OFI 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.