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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat OFI 4-2 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.22 xG and OFI 1.24 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against OFI attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 36% | Draw 27% | OFI 37%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 30%, OFI 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

OFI's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.27 PPG, OFI 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights