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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat OFI 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.94 xG and OFI 1.18 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OFI landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against OFI attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 29% | Draw 30% | OFI 41%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 43%, OFI 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

OFI's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.16 PPG, OFI 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights