Panetolikos vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panetolikos Stadium plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's home record at Panetolikos Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Panetolikos 2W, Levadiakos 3W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 47% versus Levadiakos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | Levadiakos 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.86 xG and Levadiakos 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.148 / defence 0.962 | Levadiakos attack 0.835 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 0.917. Data: 30 Panetolikos games / 30 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 61% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Levadiakos 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Panetolikos (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 70% | Levadiakos 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 61% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Panetolikos 1.86 / Levadiakos 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.148 / def 0.962 | Levadiakos attack 0.835 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.490 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Levadiakos xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Panetolikos Stadium.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 61% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Record (10 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 5 | Levadiakos 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.83x) against Panetolikos's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
61%
1.64
28%
3.58
11%
9.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.59
0.74
Levadiakos xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
9.00
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
57.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.74 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 11W 8D 17L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 13L across 36 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.47 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.75 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.17 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 2, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 56%, Levadiakos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Panetolikos and 61% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 33% of games; Levadiakos in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 44% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Panetolikos's matches and 61% of Levadiakos's.
Do Panetolikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.