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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Levadiakos defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Levadiakos 0.83 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.77 / defence 0.80 against Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 35% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 31%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 19%, Levadiakos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Levadiakos's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.27 PPG, Levadiakos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights