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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Panetolikos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Larisa 3-0 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.38 xG and Larisa 1.41 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Larisa attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 36% | Draw 26% | Larisa 38%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 44%, Larisa 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Larisa's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.89 PPG, Larisa 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights