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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Kifisia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Kifisia 2-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.54 xG and Kifisia 1.39 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.39 against Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 49/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 41% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 34%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 44%, Kifisia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.91 PPG, Kifisia 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights