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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Panetolikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Atromitos attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 30% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 40%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 42%, Atromitos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atromitos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.17 PPG, Atromitos 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights