Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 47%, yet in-form Asteras Tripolis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panetolikos Stadium plays host to Panetolikos versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Panetolikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 3D 5L at Panetolikos Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Asteras Tripolis arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Asteras Tripolis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Panetolikos, 4 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 47% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 44% | Asteras Tripolis 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.49 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.964 / defence 1.052 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.940 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Panetolikos games / 26 Asteras Tripolis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 47% | Draw 27% | Asteras Tripolis 27%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Asteras Tripolis 3.70. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Asteras Tripolis (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 70% | Asteras Tripolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 47% | Draw 27% | Asteras Tripolis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Panetolikos 1.49 / Asteras Tripolis 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.964 / def 1.052 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.940 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Asteras Tripolis xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panetolikos 3 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 47% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (9 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 4W.
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.94x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.74
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.55
1.06
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.06 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 9D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. Panetolikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.00 PPG from 36 outings (8W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. Asteras Tripolis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.00 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 4W 3D 11L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (2W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Pre-Season
Asteras Tripolis
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 12D 16L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.83 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
3
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 56%, Asteras Tripolis 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Panetolikos) and 39% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 39% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 44% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Panetolikos's recent games and 39% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Asteras Tripolis 3-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.49 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.06 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 47% | Draw 27% | Asteras Tripolis 27%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 44%, Asteras Tripolis 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.