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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.37 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 34%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.19 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights