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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Asteras Tripolis 3-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.21 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.39 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 34%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.19 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights