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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panetolikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.10 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.50 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 30% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 32%, Aris Thessalonikis 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.18 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights