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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Panetolikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Panetolikos 0-5 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.29 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.44 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 34% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 41%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 29%, AEK Athens FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights