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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Volos NFC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.51 xG and Volos NFC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Volos NFC attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 28%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Volos NFC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Volos NFC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights