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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAOK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat PAOK 3-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.34 xG and PAOK 1.19 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against PAOK attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 27% | PAOK 33%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 55%, PAOK 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

PAOK's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.92 PPG, PAOK 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights