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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat PAOK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat PAOK 2-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 0.88 xG and PAOK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.89 / defence 0.74 against PAOK attack 1.46 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 26% | Draw 29% | PAOK 45%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 54%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

PAOK's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.96 PPG, PAOK 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights