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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.03 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.17 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 28/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 41%, Olympiakos Piraeus 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights