🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panathinaikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 0-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.93 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights