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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 4-1 hammering of OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat OFI 4-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 2.34 xG and OFI 1.01 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 67% | Draw 19% | OFI 15%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 44%, OFI 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

OFI's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights