Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Levadiakos meet at Olympic Stadium of Athens in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panathinaikos have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Stadium of Athens, Panathinaikos have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympic Stadium of Athens this season.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in Panathinaikos's favour (2.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Panathinaikos are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
The historical record gives Panathinaikos a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 48% versus Levadiakos 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 50% | Levadiakos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.17 xG and Levadiakos 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.451 / defence 0.783 | Levadiakos attack 0.697 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.034. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Panathinaikos games / 36 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 73% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 6%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.37 | Draw 4.76 | Levadiakos 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (73%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 50% | Levadiakos 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympic Stadium of Athens • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 73% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 40% | xG Panathinaikos 2.17 / Levadiakos 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.451 / def 0.783 | Levadiakos attack 0.697 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Levadiakos xG
40%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Olympic Stadium of Athens.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Stadium of Athens.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 73% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 6% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Panathinaikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): Panathinaikos 6W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.70x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 3-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
73%
1.38
21%
4.69
6%
16.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.74
0.56
Levadiakos xG
1.38
73%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
16.23
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
41%
2.43
1%
142.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.56 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panathinaikos come into this having played 42 games, going 23W 10D 9L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.38 PPG from 42 outings (16W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Panathinaikos's home form reads 13W 6D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.60 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 23W 10D 9L in their last 42 games (1.88 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.14 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Panathinaikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 57%, Levadiakos 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Panathinaikos) and 57% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Levadiakos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 43% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Panathinaikos's matches and 57% of Levadiakos's.
Do Panathinaikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.