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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panathinaikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.92 xG and Larisa 0.80 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Panathinaikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Larisa attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 64% | Draw 22% | Larisa 15%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 50%, Larisa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Larisa's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights