Panathinaikos vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Panathinaikos welcome Kalamata to Olympic Stadium of Athens. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's home record at Olympic Stadium of Athens: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kalamata — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panathinaikos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kalamata in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Panathinaikos have won 1, Kalamata 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Kalamata trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 40% versus Kalamata 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 60% | Kalamata 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.33 xG and Kalamata 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.455 / defence 0.878 | Kalamata attack 0.760 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 0.919. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Panathinaikos games / 4 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 74% | Draw 20% | Kalamata 6%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.35 | Draw 5.00 | Kalamata 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (74%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Panathinaikos 60% | Kalamata 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympic Stadium of Athens • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 74% | Draw 20% | Kalamata 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 44% | xG Panathinaikos 2.33 / Kalamata 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.455 / def 0.878 | Kalamata attack 0.760 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.434 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Kalamata xG
44%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Kalamata kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Olympic Stadium of Athens.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Stadium of Athens.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Kalamata part of?
Panathinaikos vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 74% chance of winning, Kalamata a 6% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Panathinaikos and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Kalamata?
Record (1 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 0 | Kalamata 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Kalamata in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kalamata (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 1.46x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 3-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
74%
1.36
20%
4.88
6%
17.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.94
0.61
Kalamata xG
1.36
74%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
17.24
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
10%
10.25
Win to Nil
40%
2.50
1%
176.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.61 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Kalamata?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 5W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 2.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalamata.
The Goals Picture
Panathinaikos are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata in 60%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 games (3.00 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Panathinaikos or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panathinaikos and Kalamata runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Panathinaikos
0
Draws
0
Kalamata
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Kalamata?
From 1 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 1, Kalamata have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Kalamata last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Kalamata 0-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Kalamata?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 40%, Kalamata 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Panathinaikos) and 40% (Kalamata).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Kalamata in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 60% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 40% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Kalamata tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.