🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out AEK Athens FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat AEK Athens FC 1-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.24 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.01 / defence 0.74 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 42% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 29%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 56%, AEK Athens FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panathinaikos's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.96 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights