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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Volos NFC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 1-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.90 xG and Volos NFC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 17%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, Volos NFC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights