Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Volos NFC.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (46 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).

Volos NFC trading profile (46 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 54% versus Volos NFC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Volos NFC 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.53 xG and Volos NFC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.340 / defence 0.900 | Volos NFC attack 1.002 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.236. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 39 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 26%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Volos NFC 3.85. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Volos NFC 40%.

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