Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1.90 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 4W, PAOK 4W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus PAOK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 32% | PAOK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.83 xG and PAOK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.103 / defence 0.695 | PAOK attack 1.253 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.032. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 0.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 35 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | Draw 25% | PAOK 17%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | PAOK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | PAOK 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | Draw 25% | PAOK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.83 / PAOK 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.103 / def 0.695 | PAOK attack 1.253 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.90
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 58% chance of winning, PAOK a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 2 | PAOK 4W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.10) and PAOK's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.25x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
58%
1.71
25%
4.08
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.73
0.90
PAOK xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
36.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.90 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 26W 10D 5L from 41 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 7L across 41 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.15 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.00 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 8W 6D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.88 scored and 0.90 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Olympiakos Piraeus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games; PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 10D 5L in their last 41 games (2.15 PPG), while PAOK have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.15 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 20%, PAOK 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 70% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 65% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 70% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PAOK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.