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Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK finished level at 0-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG and PAOK 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.69 against PAOK attack 1.37 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 28% | PAOK 30%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

PAOK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.33 PPG, PAOK 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights