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Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panserraikos 5-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 xG and Panserraikos 0.77 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.16 / defence 0.87 against Panserraikos attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 20%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, Panserraikos 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Panserraikos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights