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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Panathinaikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 4-2 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.53 xG and Panathinaikos 0.83 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Panathinaikos attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 20%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, Panathinaikos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.18 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights