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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.29 xG and Panathinaikos 0.95 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Panathinaikos attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 27%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 60%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.15 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights