Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 4D 2L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.60 PPG, OFI 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 10 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 10 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 34% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 31% | OFI 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 xG and OFI 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.934 / defence 0.816 | OFI attack 1.037 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 0.959. Data: 29 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 28 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 31% | OFI 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 20% | OFI 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 31% | OFI 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 / OFI 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.934 / def 0.816 | OFI attack 1.037 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.555 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.81
OFI xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 53% chance of winning, OFI a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 10W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.93x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.26
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.40
0.81
OFI xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
29.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.81 for OFI, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 35 games, going 21W 10D 4L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (14W 3D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 11W 4D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.37 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 10D 4L in their last 35 games (2.09 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 3D 18L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or OFI away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.18 PPG; OFI away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, OFI in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 10 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, OFI have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 24%, OFI 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 76% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 65% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 76% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, OFI in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.