Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.10 for Levadiakos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Levadiakos in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Levadiakos — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 33% versus Levadiakos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 31% | Levadiakos 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG and Levadiakos 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.782 / defence 0.862 | Levadiakos attack 0.832 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 0.917. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 30 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 37% | Levadiakos 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 | Draw 2.70 | Levadiakos 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Levadiakos 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 37% | Levadiakos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 / Levadiakos 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.782 / def 0.862 | Levadiakos attack 0.832 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.489 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Levadiakos xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 48% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 16% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.83x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
48%
2.10
37%
2.72
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.92
0.66
Levadiakos xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
22.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.66 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 36 games, going 21W 10D 5L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (15W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.75 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 10D 5L in their last 36 games (2.03 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Levadiakos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.06 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Levadiakos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 44% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 61% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 28% of games; Levadiakos in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 44% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 61% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.