Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.70 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Levadiakos in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Levadiakos — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Levadiakos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 32% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.77 xG and Levadiakos 0.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.099 / defence 0.706 | Levadiakos attack 0.643 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 68% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 8%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 | Draw 4.17 | Levadiakos 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 68% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 32% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.77 / Levadiakos 0.46 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.099 / def 0.706 | Levadiakos attack 0.643 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.46
Levadiakos xG
32%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 68% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 8% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 5W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.64x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.46.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.9%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
68%
1.46
24%
4.19
8%
12.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.23
0.46
Levadiakos xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
12.87
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
63%
1.58
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
43%
2.31
1%
75.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.9 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.46 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 41 games, going 26W 10D 5L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.61 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 10D 5L in their last 41 games (2.15 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Levadiakos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.15 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 40% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 55% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Levadiakos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 55% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.