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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Levadiakos 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Levadiakos 3-2 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.72 xG and Levadiakos 0.82 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.42 / defence 0.78 against Levadiakos attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 18%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, Levadiakos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Levadiakos's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights