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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.40 xG and Kifisia 0.82 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.44 / defence 0.68 against Kifisia attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | Kifisia 11%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Kifisia 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.

Kifisia's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights