Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ionikos (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ionikos's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2.00 for Ionikos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ionikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 2W, Ionikos 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Ionikos half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus Ionikos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Ionikos 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 xG and Ionikos 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.178 / defence 0.835 | Ionikos attack 0.906 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 0.926. Data: 28 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 28 Ionikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 31% | Ionikos 17%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Ionikos 5.88. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Ionikos 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 31% | Ionikos 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 / Ionikos 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.178 / def 0.835 | Ionikos attack 0.906 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.228 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Ionikos xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 53% chance of winning, Ionikos a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos?
Record (2 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 0 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Ionikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.91x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
53%
1.90
31%
3.27
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.12
0.70
Ionikos xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.70 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 24W 8D 3L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ionikos's form line: 12W 10D 13L from 35 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.47 PPG from 17 outings (13W 3D 1L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Ionikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 8D 3L in their last 35 games (2.29 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Ionikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.47 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Ionikos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos?
From 4 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Ionikos have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 53%, Ionikos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 41% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ionikos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 53% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 41% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Ionikos 3-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 xG and Ionikos 0.70 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Ionikos attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 31% | Ionikos 17%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, Ionikos 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Ionikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Ionikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.