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Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Atromitos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 3-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG and Atromitos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.39 / defence 0.81 against Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 24%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Atromitos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atromitos's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights