Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Asteras Tripolis — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 33% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 31% | Asteras Tripolis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.21 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.786 / defence 0.864 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.092 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 0.917. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 30 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Draw 37% | Asteras Tripolis 22%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Asteras Tripolis 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Asteras Tripolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Draw 37% | Asteras Tripolis 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.21 / Asteras Tripolis 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.786 / def 0.864 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.092 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.490 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Asteras Tripolis xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 40% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 7W | Draws 2 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.79x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.09x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
40%
2.49
37%
2.67
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.08
0.87
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.87 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 36 games, going 21W 10D 5L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (9W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 10D 5L in their last 36 games (2.03 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.00 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 24%, Asteras Tripolis 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 41% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 35%; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 29% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 41% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.