🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 2-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.37 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.02 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 27% | Asteras Tripolis 28%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, Asteras Tripolis 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights