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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 22, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.60 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.85 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 22%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 57%, Asteras Tripolis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights