Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.90 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Aris Thessalonikis — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Aris Thessalonikis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.26 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.098 / defence 0.708 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.927 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.022. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 36 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 19% | Aris Thessalonikis 8%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Aris Thessalonikis 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 19% | Aris Thessalonikis 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 45% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.26 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.098 / def 0.708 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.927 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 72% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 5W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.10x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.93x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
72%
1.38
19%
5.19
8%
11.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.93
0.67
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
11.92
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
10%
9.55
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
113.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.67 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 26W 10D 5L from 41 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 11L across 41 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.17 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 10D 5L in their last 41 games (2.15 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 14D 11L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.15 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 45% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 45% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 45% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 45% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.