Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.20 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Aris Thessalonikis — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.808 / defence 0.849 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.974 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 0.993. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 31 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Aris Thessalonikis 5.26. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.808 / def 0.849 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.974 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.366 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Aris Thessalonikis xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 48% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 5W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.81x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.97x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
48%
2.09
34%
2.97
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.24
0.82
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
22.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.82 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 22W 10D 5L from 37 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 10L across 37 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 11W 4D 3L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.05 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 22W 10D 5L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 14D 10L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.06 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 44% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 39% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 28% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 44% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.