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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.97 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.85 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.32 / defence 0.78 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, Aris Thessalonikis 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights