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Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AEK Athens FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 2-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.37 / defence 0.87 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 25%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, AEK Athens FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights