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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out AEK Athens FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.16 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 32%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, AEK Athens FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.16 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights