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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OFI cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Volos NFC 3-1 at Pankritio Stadium, Conference League Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.67 xG and Volos NFC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against Volos NFC attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 52% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 20%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 62%, Volos NFC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Volos NFC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.17 PPG, Volos NFC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights