OFI 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees PAOK travel to Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — OFI are significantly better at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAOK, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for OFI.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
PAOK trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus PAOK 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 67% | PAOK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.55 xG and PAOK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.042 / defence 0.921 | PAOK attack 1.263 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.077. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 OFI games / 33 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 41% | Draw 31% | PAOK 28%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | PAOK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAOK (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 41% | Draw 31% | PAOK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG OFI 1.55 / PAOK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.042 / def 0.921 | PAOK attack 1.263 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: OFI (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PAOK xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 2 - 1 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 41% chance of winning, PAOK a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Record (9 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 2 | PAOK 5W.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.04) and PAOK's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.25
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
OFI xG
Total xG
2.80
1.25
PAOK xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
6%
17.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for OFI and 1.25 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 4D 20L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.03 PPG from 39 outings (23W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 10W 1D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.90 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 4D 20L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while PAOK have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
OFI's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.63 PPG; PAOK away: 1.58 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OFI
2
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, PAOK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when OFI 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 32%, PAOK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for OFI and 68% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of OFI's recent matches and 63% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of OFI's matches and 68% of PAOK's.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, PAOK in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out PAOK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat PAOK 2-1 at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.55 xG and PAOK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against PAOK attack 1.26 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 41% | Draw 31% | PAOK 28%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 67%, PAOK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.