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Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat OFI 1-2 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.29 xG and PAOK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against PAOK attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it OFI 38% | Draw 27% | PAOK 36%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

PAOK's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights