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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-5 hammering of OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat OFI 0-5 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.15 xG and PAOK 1.59 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. OFI fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.59 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against PAOK attack 1.30 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 28% | Draw 25% | PAOK 47%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAOK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights